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中概股回归表明中国不差钱?

分类:英语赏析 阅读:

 

When a group of investors including Sequoia Capital’s China unit and company management took US-listed Qihoo 360 Technology, a Chinese internet company, private in December, they were surprised how easy it was to do so at the desired valuation of $9.3bn.

去年12月,在美国上市的中国互联网公司奇虎360科技有限公司(Qihoo 360 Technology)被一组投资者私有化,这些投资者包括红杉资本中国(Sequoia China)和奇虎360的管理层,他们意外发现,以令他们满意的93亿美元估值完成私有化是多么的容易。

Since then, there have been at least half a dozen more such transactions, the latest being Jumei, an online cosmetics company. Even as the bears warn darkly that China is running out of money, Chinese outbound acquisitions set ever bigger records and capital outflows amount to a possible $800bn a year. There is still plenty of liquidity in China, as such take-private deals suggest. Moreover, these transactions come at a time when the Chinese financial markets are seemingly locked in a tug-of-war between regulators determined to support the prices of listed companies (however artificial) and the naysayers, who believe there is far worse to come.

自那以来至少又发生了6起此类交易,最新的是在线化妆品零售企业聚美优品(Jumei)。即便在悲观人士阴沉地警告中国资金即将枯竭之际,中国对外收购仍不断打破纪录,每年的资本流出可能达到8000亿美元。正如此类私有化交易表明的那样,中国仍有大量的流动性。此外,这些交易发生之际,中国金融市场似乎陷入一场角力,一方面是监管机构决心支撑上市公司股价(无论此举多么人为),另一方面是唱衰者认为还会出现更糟糕的情况。

Given the fact that the main attraction of such take-private transactions is to eventually relist in China at a much higher valuation, such deals suggest many local investors still have faith in their home market despite the volatility. While the valuation gap has come down, it is still attractive. And for hedge fund managers sitting in Hong Kong who have a much more nuanced view of China than their counterparts in the US, playing such proposed buyouts and outbound investment can be exceptionally lucrative. Generally, the risk that a deal falls through has been slight. There have been dozens of such offers since 2010 and only about 10 per cent have not gone through.

鉴于此类私有化交易对投资者的主要吸引力在于最终在中国以高得多的估值重新上市,这些交易表明,尽管中国市场动荡,但许多国内投资者仍对国内市场抱有信心。虽然估值差距缩小,但此类交易仍具吸引力。与美国对冲基金相比,香港对冲基金对中国的观察更为细微,对它们而言,参与此类拟议收购和对外投资可以获得异常丰厚的利润。通常而言,交易失败的风险很低。自2010年以来发生了数十起此类交易,但大约只有10%没有成功。

Senrigan Capital, a Hong Kong hedge fund with backing from Blackstone, for example, was up more than 18 per cent after fees in 2015, a performance most of its peers might well envy, in part by taking views on the privatisation trend.

例如,获得黑石(Blackstone)支持的香港对冲基金Senrigan Capital在2015年不包括手续费在内的回报率超过18%,这一业绩很可能让大多数同行羡慕不已,而它部分得益于该基金观察到私有化趋势。

For example, when HomeInns, China’s second-largest US listed hotel group, announced a proposal from a group of existing large shareholders including Sequoia’s Neil Shen (a founder), Ctrip.com and best of all state-owned Beijing Tourism Group (thus ensuring government support), Senrigan examined its merits closely and decided the proposed take-private deal was attractive for many reasons, according to its year-end letter to investors.

例如,当在美上市的中国第二大酒店集团如家(Homeinns)宣布收到一组现有大股东的私有化要约的时候,Senrigan在年末致投资者的信中表示,Senrigan仔细研究了这一交易的优点,认定该私有化交易从许多方面来说具有吸引力。上述如家大股东包括红杉资本中国创始人之一沈南鹏(Neil Shen)和携程(Ctrip.com),最妙的是还有国有企业北京首旅集团(Beijing Tourism Group)(从而确保政府支持)。

For one thing, the valuation was reasonable, which meant of course that the probability of an increase in the offer price was greater. Moreover, because Beijing Tourism already had an A share listed company which pledged to buy the hotel group, the uncertainty of a future mainland listing was greatly reduced. Senrigan’s calculations were confirmed when the offer price was increased almost 10 per cent in December.

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